Единственная игра в городе: центральные банки, нестабильность и предотвращение следующего коллапса - Mohamed A. El-Erian

CHAPTER 7: CENTRAL BANK RESURRECTION

1. Mario Draghi, speech to the Global Investment Council, European Central Bank, July 26, 2012, http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2012/html/sp120726.en.html.

2. Jack Ewing and Binyamin Appelbaum, “A Stress Test for Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank,” New York Times, January 3, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/business/stress-test-for-mario-draghi.html.

3. Philip Turner, “The Exit from Non-Conventional Monetary Policy: What Challenges?,” BIS Working Paper 448, 2014, May, http://www.bis.org/publ/work448.pdf.

4. “Monetary Policy Struggles to Normalize,” BIS Annual Report, June 29, 2014, Bank for International Settlements, http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2014e5.htm.

5. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Parsing Draghi’s QE Gambit,” Bloomberg View, January 23, 2015, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-23/parsing-draghi-s-qe-gambit. See also Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The ECB Can Only Buy Time for Europe’s Politicians,” Financial Times, January 22, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/957b9ddc-a241-11e4-bbb8-00144feab7de.html.

6. Tracy Alloway, “Markets’ Misplaced Faith in Central Banks,” Financial Times, January 23, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2ad516fa-a2d4-11e4-ac1c-00144feab7de.html.

7. Hyman Minsky, “The Financial Instability Hypothesis,” Working Paper No. 74, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, 1992.

8. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Beware of Calls for QE4,” Financial Times, October 17, 2014, http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2014/10/17/beware-of-calls-for-qe4/.

9. Chris Giles, “Carney Warns on Low Interest Rates,” Financial Times, January 24, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c20266fe-a3fb-11e4-b90d-00144feab7de.html.

10. Timothy F. Geithner, Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises (New York: Crown, 2014).

CHAPTER 8: SETTING THE STAGE

1. Jim Grant, “Monetary Policy Is a Virus That Infects Politics,” Financial Times, January 5, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/14078740-9277-11e4-a1fd-00144feabdc0.html.

2. “The World Economy: In Need of New Oomph,” Economist, May 24, 2014, http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21602698-how-make-rich-worlds-recovery-stronger-and-safer-need-new-oomph.

3. “In Search of a New Compass,” Bank for International Settlements, June 29, 2014, http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2014e1.htm.

4. E. S. Browning, “The ‘Investor’s Dilemma’: Everything Is Expensive,” Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2014, http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/08/24/the-investors-dilemma-everything-is-expensive/.

5. Lawrence H. Summers, “Reflection on the ‘New Secular Stagnation Hypotheses,’ ” in Coen Tuelings and Richard Baldwin, eds., Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes, and Cures (London: CEPR Press, 2014), http://www.voxeu.org/sites/default/files/Vox_secular_stagnation.pdf.

CHAPTER 9: THE QUEST OF A GENERATION

1. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The Global Growth Quest,” Project Syndicate, April 9, 2013, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-worldwide-search-for-new-growth-models-by-mohamed-a--el-erian.

2. Matt O’Brien, “Greece’s Poor Are Back to Where They Were in 1980,” Washington Post, April 10, 2015, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonk blog/wp/2015/04/10/greeces-poor-are-back-to-where-they-were-in-1980/.

3. “Mohamed A. El-Erian Discusses PIMCO’s Secular Outlook and Investment Implications,” Economic Outlook, PIMCO, May 2009, http://europe.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Secular%20Outlook%20Q%20and%20A%20May%202009%20El-Erian.aspx.

4. Jim Pearce, “The New Normal—Six Years Later,” Investing Daily, January 30, 2015, http://www.investingdaily.com/22053/the-new-normal-six-years-later-2/.

5. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The ‘New Normal’ and Its Consequential Morphing,” Journal of Indexes, November 22, 2013, http://europe.etf.com/europe/publications/journal-of-indexes/articles/9398-the-new-normal-and-its-consequential-morphing.html?start=6&Itemid=200.

6. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “ ‘The New Normal’ Has Been Devastating for America,” Business Insider, March 22, 2014, http://www.businessinsider.com/el-erian-state-of-the-new-normal-2014-3.

7. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Europe Must Pay Heed to Japan’s New Slide,” Bloomberg View, November 18, 2014, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-18/europe-must-pay-heed-to-japans-new-slide.

8. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Could America Turn Out Worse than Japan?,” Reuters, October 31, 2011, http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/2011/10/31/could-america-turn-out-worse-than-japan-2/.

9. Lawrence H. Summers, “U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound,” Business Economics 49, no. 2 (2014), http://larrysummers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/NABE-speech-Lawrence-H.-Summers1.pdf.

10. Christine Lagarde, “The Challenge Facing the Global Economy: New Momentum to Overcome a New Mediocre,” speech to Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, October 2, 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2014/100214.htm.

11. Gauti Eggertsson and Neil Mehrota, “A Model of Secular Stagnation,” NBER Working Paper No. 20574, National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2014, http://www.nber.org/papers/w20574.pdf.

12. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Confronting Persistent U.S. Economic Slump,” Bloomberg View, April 21, 2014, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-04-21/confronting-the-u-s-economic-slump.

13. Martin Wolf, “Why America Is Going to Win the Global Currency Battle,” Financial Times, October 12, 2010, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fe45eeb2-d644-11df-81f0-00144feabdc0.html.

14. Janet Yellen, “Monetary Policy and the Economic Recovery,” speech to the Economic Club of New York, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, April 16, 2014, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140416a.htm.

15. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Trial by Fire: What Crises Lie in Wait for Janet Yellen,” Foreign Policy, January 7, 2014, http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/01/07/trial-by-fire/.

16. Raghuram Rajan, “Global Policy: A View from Emerging Markets,” Brookings Institution, video, April 10, 2014, http://www.brookings.edu/events/2014/04/10-global-monetary-policy-view-from-emerging-markets.

17. See, for example, “The BIS Quarterly Review for December 2014: Buoyant Yet Fragile?,” December 7, 2014, Bank for International Settlements, http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1412.htm.

18. Michael Chui, Ingo Fender, and Vladyslav Sushko, “Risks Related to EME Corporate Balance Sheets: The Role of Leverage and Currency Mismatch,” Bank for International Settlements, 2014, http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1409f.pdf.

CHAPTER 10: REDUCING THE RISK OF THE UNEMPLOYED BECOMING UNEMPLOYABLE

1. Stanley Fischer, “The Great Recession: Moving Ahead,” speech to conference sponsored by the Swedish Ministry of Finance, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, August 11, 2014, http://www.federalreserve.gov/news events/speech/fischer20140811a.htm.

CHAPTER 11: THE INEQUALITY TRIFECTA

1. “Focus on Inequality and Income,” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Directorate for Employment, Labor and Social Affairs, December 2014, http://www.oecd.org/social/Focus-Inequality-and-Growth-2014.pdf.

2. Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, “Wealth Inequality in the US Since 1913,” NBER Working Paper No. 20615, October 2014.

3. Estelle Sommiller and Mark Price, “The Increasingly Unequal Income States of America,” Economic Policy Institute, January 26, 2015, http://www.epi.org/publication/income-inequality-by-state-1917-to-2012/.

4. “17 Things We Learned About Income Inequality in 2014,” Atlantic, December 23, 2014, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/12/17-things-we-learned-about-income-inequality-in-2014/383917/.

5. Federal Reserve Board of Governors, “Changes in US Family Finances from 2010 to 2013: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances,” Federal Reserve Bulletin 100, no. 4 (September 2014), http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2014/pdf/scf14.pdf.

6. Rakesh Kochhar and Richard Fry, “Wealth Inequality Has Widened Along Racial, Ethnic Lines Since the End of the Great Recession,” Pew Research Center, December 12, 2014, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/12/racial-wealth-gaps-great-recession/.

7. Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2014).

8. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The Inequality Trifecta,” Project Syndicate, October 17, 2014,