Единственная игра в городе: центральные банки, нестабильность и предотвращение следующего коллапса - Mohamed A. El-Erian

9. Jeremy C. Stein, “Challenges to Monetary Policy Communication,” speech to the Money Marketeers of New York University, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, May 6, 2014, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/stein20140506a.htm. A similar point was made by Hyun Song Shin, “Commentary on Robert E. Hall, ‘The Routes into and out of the Zero Lower Bound,’ ” speech delivered at conference on Global Dimensions of Unconventional Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 22–24, 2013.

10. Janet Yellen, “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability,” speech at the 2014 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C., July 2, 2014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140702a.htm.

11. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Yellen Lays Out Her Policy Blueprint,” Bloomberg View, July 7, 2014, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-07/yellen-lays-out-her-policy-blueprint.

12. Stanley Fischer, “Financial Sector Reform: How Far Are We?,” Martin Feldstein Lecture at the National Bureau of Economic Research, July 10, 2014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20140710a.htm.

13. Jeremy C. Stein, “Overheating in Credit Markets: Origins, Measurement, and Policy Responses,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 7, 2013, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/stein20130207a.htm.

14. Jaime Caruana, “Macro-Prudential Policies: Opportunities and Challenges,” speech to the Tenth High-Level Meeting for the Middle East and North Africa, Bank for International Settlements, December 9, 2014, http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp141219.pdf.

15. “Staff Guidance Note on Macro-Prudential Policies,” International Monetary Fund, December 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/110614.pdf.

CHAPTER 18: IT IS HARD TO BE A GOOD HOUSE IN A CHALLENGED NEIGHBORHOOD

1. Martin Wolf, “A Rebuff of China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Is Folly,” Financial Times, March 24, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0dff595e-d16a-11e4-86c8-00144feab7de.html.

2. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “M&A Boom Must Evolve to Create Growth,” Financial Times, August 20, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d3b11b24-26c5-11e4-8df5-00144feabdc0.html.

3. Michael MacKenzie and Eric Platt, “US Companies on Course to Return $1 Trillion to Shareholders in 2015,” Financial Times, April 12, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2c1a34d8-dfa5-11e4-a06a-00144feab7de.html.

CHAPTER 19: ADDRESSING THE TEN BIG CHALLENGES

1. “Q and A with Charles Plosser, President of the Fed: Raise Interest Rates Sooner Rather than Later,” New York Times, January 30, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/upshot/q-and-a-with-charles-plosser-of-the-fed-raise-rates-sooner-rather-than-later.html.

2. Chris Giles and Ferdinando Giugliano, “Raise Rates or Face ‘Devastating Bubbles,’ Says Fed Official,” Financial Times, March 23, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/62c65f4c-d15f-11e4-86c8-00144feab7de.html.

3. Stanley Fischer, “Monetary Policy and the Way Ahead,” speech to the Economic Club of New York, March 23, 2015, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20150323a.htm.

CHAPTER 20: THE REDUCED-FORM APPROACH TO A GRAND POLICY DESIGN

1. Special thanks to Professor Michael Spence, who has been instrumental in helping me think through these issues.

2. The 2015 Economic Report of the President, White House Council of Economic Advisers, February 19, 2015, http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/cea_2015_erp.pdf.

3. Michael Spence, “Five Reasons for Slow Growth,” Project Syndicate, September 29, 2014, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/slow-economic-growth-reasons-by-michael-spence-2014-12.

4. “The Fund’s Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt,” International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C., June 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/052214a.pdf.

5. See, for example, “Debt Relief Under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative,” IMF Factsheet, Washington, D.C., September 2014, https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/hipc.htm.

6. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten,” IMF Working Paper, WP/13/266, December 2013, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13266.pdf.

7. “Bleak Words and Difficult Homework from the IMF,” Financial Times, October 5, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/53516aec-4af6-11e4-b1be-00144feab7de.html.

8. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The New Isolationism: Why the World’s Richest Countries Can’t Work Together,” Atlantic, September 3, 2013, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/09/the-new-isolationism-why-the-worlds-richest-countries-cant-work-together/279282/.

CHAPTER 21: WHEN DESIRABLE AND FEASIBLE DIFFER

1. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Obama Sets Terms of 2016 Debate,” Bloomberg View, January 21, 2015, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-21/obama-sets-terms-of-2016-debate.

2. Amartya K. Sen, “Rational Fools: A Critique of the Behavioral Foundations of Economic Theory,” Philosophy and Public Affairs 6, no. 4 (Summer 1977), http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2264946?sid=21105866957553&uid=3739256&uid=4&uid=2&uid=3739560.

3. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The 1 Equation Investors Need to Know to Understand the World Today,” Atlantic, May 22, 2013, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/05/the-1-equation-investors-need-to-know-to-understand-the-world-today/276124/.

CHAPTER 22: TURNING PARALYZING COMPLEXITY INTO ACTIONABLE SIMPLICITY

1. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “What We Need from the IMF/World Bank Meetings,” Financial Times, October 6, 2013, http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2013/10/06/what-we-need-from-the-imfworld-bank-meetings/.

CHAPTER 23: THE BELLY OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES

1. “The World in 2015,” Economist, December 2014.

2. Michael J. Casey, “Flattening Yield Curve Latest Complication for Fed,” Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2015, http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/04/12/flattening-yield-curve-latest-complication-for-fed/?mod=WSJ_hps_MIDDLE_Video_Third.

3. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The Instability in Central Bank Divergence,” Financial Times, February 26, 2014, http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2014/02/26/the-instability-in-central-bank-divergence/.

CHAPTER 24: A WORLD OF GREATER DIVERGENCE (I): MULTI-SPEED GROWTH

1. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “A Year of Divergence,” Project Syndicate, December 8, 2014, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-monetary-policy-divergence-2015-by-mohamed-a--el-erian-2014-12.

2. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Missteps and Miscalculations That Could Cost Greece the Euro,” Financial Times, March 25, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a28549d6-d303-11e4-a792-00144feab7de.html.

CHAPTER 25: A WORLD OF GREATER DIVERGENCE (II): MULTI-TRACK CENTRAL BANKS

1. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “An Accidental Currency War,” Project Syndicate, February 10, 2015, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/monetary-policy-central-bank-activism-by-mohamed-a--el-erian-2015-02; and Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Rising Risk of Currency Market Instability,” Financial Times, August 26, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a82d9c14-2ce4-11e4-911b-00144feabdc0.html.

2. Ben S. Bernanke, “The Logic of Monetary Policy,” remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C., December 2, 2004, http://www.federalreserve.gov/Boarddocs/speeches/2004/20041202/default.htm.

CHAPTER 26: A WORLD OF GREATER DIVERGENCE (III): NON-ECONOMIC, NON-POLICY HEADWINDS

1. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Greece Can Learn from Brazil and Argentina,” Bloomberg View, January 13, 2015, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-13/greece-can-learn-from-brazil-and-argentina.

CHAPTER 27: A WORLD OF GREATER DIVERGENCE (IV): DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION GOES MACRO

1. Daniel Yergin, “Who Will Rule the Oil Market?,” New York Times, January 23, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/25/opinion/sunday/what-happened-to-the-price-of-oil.html.

2. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Good, Bad and Ugly of Lower Oil Prices,” Bloomberg View, December 1, 2014, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-01/good-bad-and-ugly-of-lower-oil-prices.

3. Erik Brynjolfsson and