Единственная игра в городе: центральные банки, нестабильность и предотвращение следующего коллапса - Mohamed A. El-Erian

ПРИМЕЧАНИЯ

CHAPTER 2: THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN

1. Christian Noyer, “Central Banking: The Way Forward?,” opening speech to the International Symposium of the Banque de France, November 7, 2014, https://www.banque-france.fr/uploads/tx_bdfgrandesdates/Allocution-ouverture-Noyer-Symposium-7112014-EN.pdf.

2. Richard Milne, “Denmark Highlights Naked Truth About Negative Lending,” Financial Times, April 8, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7f4e2f4c-dde3-11e4-9d29-00144feab7de.html.

3. Ben S. Bernanke, “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy,” speech to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank, August 27, 2010, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20100827a.htm.

4. I first came across this term, attributed to a “senior Citigroup executive,” in Landon Thomas, Jr., and Neil Gough, “Swiss Move Prompts Fears of Sustained Market Tumult,” New York Times, January 16, 2015, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/currency-traders-rattled-in-wake-of-swiss-central-bank-move.

CHAPTER 3: CENTRAL BANKS’ COMMUNICATION CHALLENGE

1. “Quarterly Review,” media briefing by Claudio Bario, head of the Monetary and Economic Department, and Hyun Shin, economic adviser and head of research, Bank for International Settlements, December 5, 2014, http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1412_ontherecord.htm.

2. “Central Banks Lift the Veil on More of Their Secrets,” Financial Times, December 14, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/64d1c072-8206-11e4-a9bb-00144feabdc0.html.

3. Alan Greenspan interview with Maria Bartiromo, CNBC, September 17, 2007.

4. Joseph M. Bessette and John J. Pitney, Jr., American Government and Politics: Deliberation, Democracy, and Citizenship (Andover, MA: Cengage Learning, 2011).

5. “Central Banks Lift the Veil on More of Their Secrets.” Financial Times, December 14, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/64d1c072-8206-11e4-a9bb-00144feabdc0.html.

6. Neil Irwin, “The Goal of 2% Inflation, Rethought,” New York Times, December 21, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/21/upshot/of-kiwis-and-currencies-how-a-2-inflation-target-became-global-economic-gospel.html.

7. “Central Banks Lift the Veil on More of Their Secrets,” Financial Times, December 14, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/64d1c072-8206-11e4-a9bb-00144feabdc0.html.

8. Nicholas Lemann, “The Hand on the Lever,” New Yorker, July 2014.

9. Binyamin Appelbaum, “Q. and A. With Charles Plosser of the Fed: Raise Rates Sooner Rather Than Later,” New York Times, January 30, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/upshot/q-and-a-with-charles-plosser-of-the-fed-raise-rates-sooner-rather-than-later.html.

10. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Why This Market Rally Is So Unloved,” Bloomberg View, September 2, 2014, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-09-02/why-this-market-rally-is-so-unloved.

11. Jack Ewing and Binyamin Appelbaum, “A Stress Test for Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank,” New York Times, January 3, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/business/stress-test-for-mario-draghi.html.

12. Janet Yellen, “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability,” speech at the 2014 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, July 2, 2014, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140702a.htm.

CHAPTER 4: HOW AND WHY THIS BOOK IS ORGANIZED

1. Andrew G. Haldane, “Growing, Fast and Slow,” speech at the University of East Anglia, Norwich, England, February 17, 2015, http://www.bis.org/review/r150219b.pdf.

2. Mohamed A. El-Erian, When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2008).

PART II: CONTEXT: THE RISE, COLLAPSE, AND RESURRECTION OF CENTRAL BANKING

1. Martin Wolf, “We Are Trapped in a Cycle of Credit Booms,” Financial Times, October 8, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1a9f058e-4d43-11e4-bf60-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Lfv9pY4D. For a detailed analysis, see Martin Wolf, The Shifts and the Shocks: What We Have Learned—and Have Still to Learn—from the Financial Crisis (New York: Penguin Press, 2014).

CHAPTER 5: THE GOLDEN AGE OF CENTRAL BANKS AND “BUBBLISH FINANCE”

1. Joan Robinson, “The Economics of Hyperinflation,” Economic Journal 48 (September 1938).

2. Mohamed A. El-Erian, When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2008).

3. For an insightful discussion of this and more, please see Raghuram G. Rajan, Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2010).

4. “Paul Krugman: Here Are 5 Big Things Paul Krugman Says He Got Wrong Over the Years,” Business Insider, November 2014, http://www.business insider.com/big-things-paul-krugman-got-wrong-economy-2014-11.

5. William C. Dudley, “Economics at the Federal Reserve,” remarks at the American Economic Association 2014 Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2014/dud140104.html.

6. Atef Mian and Amir Sufi, House of Debt: How They (and You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2014).

7. Mark Carney, “Inclusive Capitalism: Creating a Sense of the New Systemic,” speech at the Conference on Inclusive Capitalism, London, May 27, 2014, http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2014/speech731.pdf.

CHAPTER 6: CASCADING FAILURES

1. Michiyo Nakamoto and David Wighton, “Bullish Citigroup Is ‘Still Dancing’ to the Beat of the Buyout Boom,” Financial Times, July 10, 2007, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5cefc794-2e7d-11dc-821c-0000779fd2ac.html.

2. As late as September 2014, the popular media was still on this point. As an example, the money section of the September 18 edition of USA Today included the headline “Fed Sings Wall Street’s Tune.” And the drivers of the accusation, both real and perceived, went well beyond what former Treasury secretary Geithner noted in his memoir, Stress Test, that “the optics of the institution’s governance are awful. The Fed has always been vulnerable to perceptions of capture by the big banks.”

3. Robin Harding, “Transcripts Reveal Drama and Fear as Fed Confronted Lehman’s Implosion,” Financial Times, February 21, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ec1c3a5a-9b0f-11e3-946b-00144feab7de.html.

4. Sam Fleming and Shawn Donnan, “Fed Feared Japan-Scale Crisis in 2009,” Financial Times, March 5, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d77aff2c-c28d-11e4-ad89-00144feab7de.html.

5. Jeremie Cohen-Setton, “The 2008 FOMC Transcripts: Did the Committee Obsess over the Wrong Crisis and the Performance of Key Personalities,” Bruegel Blog Review, March 3, 2014, http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1258-blogs-review-the-2008-fomc-transcripts/.

6. “A Desperate Plea—Then the Race for a Deal Before ‘Sucker Goes Down,’ ” Guardian, September 26, 2008, http://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/sep/27/wallstreet.useconomy1.

7. Neal Collins, “Archaic BoE Was Ill-Equipped to Prevent Financial Crisis,” Financial Times, January 9, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d3db1f52-9752-11e4-845a-00144feabdc0.html.

8. Joshua Zumbrun and Alaa Shahine, “Retired Bernanke Harbors Regret on Main Street’s View of Bailout,” Bloomberg News, March 4, 2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-04/bernanke-says-u-s-economy-seeing-progress.html.

9. Timothy F. Geithner, Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises (New