Революция разума: на подступах к Сингулярности. Как технологии изменят общество и сознание - Рэймонд Курцвейл

Brain Emulation: A Roadmap, technical report 2008-3, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University (2008), 80, https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf; Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

131. Herculano-Houzel, “The Human Brain in Numbers”; Drachman, “Do We Have Brain to Spare?”; “Firing Behavior and Network Activity of Single Neurons in Human Epileptic Hypothalamic Hamartoma”; Abel, Behavioral Teratogenesis and Behavioral Mutagenesis; Sandberg and Bostrom, Whole Brain Emulation, 80; see the appendix for the sources used for all the cost-of-computation calculations in this book.

Глава 7. Предстоящие трудности

1. Bill McKibben, “How Much Is Enough? The Environmental Movement as a Pivot Point in Human History”, Harvard Seminar on Environmental Values, October 18, 2000, 11, http://docshare04.docshare.tips/files/9552/95524564.pdf.

2. Robert M. Pirsig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance (New York: Quill, 1999, 26; first published by William Morrow, 1974). В своей работе Пёрсиг объединил восточные и западные идеи и разработал философскую концепцию, известную как «Метафизика качества», которая изучает, как жизненный опыт людей порождает знания и идеи. Она стала одной из самых продаваемых философских книг всех времен. См. также Tim Adams, “The Interview: Robert Pirsig”, Guardian, November 19, 2006, https://www.theguardian.com/books/2006 /nov/19/fiction.

3. Hans M. Kristensen and Matt Korda, “Status of World Nuclear Forces”, Federation of American Scientists, March 2, 2022, https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces.

4. Hans M. Kristensen, “Alert Status of Nuclear Weapons”, Briefing to Short Course on Nuclear Weapon and Related Security Issues, George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, April 21, 2017, 2, https://uploads.fas.org/2014/05/Brief2017_GWU_2s.pdf.

5. Вы можете сами оценить последствия ядерной войны с помощью увлекательного онлайн-сервиса Nukemap, разработанного Алексом Веллерстейном и доступного по адресу: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap. См. также Kyle Mizokami, “335 Million Dead: If America Launched an All-Out Nuclear War”, National Interest, March 13, 2019, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/335-million-dead-if-america-launched-all-out-nuclear-war-57262; Dylan Matthews, “40 Years Ago Today, One Man Saved Us from World-Ending Nuclear War”, Vox, September 26, 2023, https:// www.vox.com/2018/9/26/17905796/nuclear-war-1983-stanislav-petrov-soviet-union; Owen B. Toon et al., “Rapidly Expanding Nuclear Arsenals in Pakistan and India Portend Regional and Global Catastrophe”, Science Advances 5, no. 10 (October 2, 2019), https:// advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/10/eaay5478.

6. Seth Baum, “The Risk of Nuclear Winter”, Federation of American Scientists, May 29, 2015, https://fas.org/pir-pubs/risk-nuclear-winter; Bryan Walsh, “What Could a Nuclear War Do to the Climate – and Humanity?”, Vox, August 17, 2022, https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/8/17/23306861/nuclear-winter-war-climate-change-food-starvation-existential-risk-russia-united-states.

7. Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom, Global Catastrophic Risks Survey, technical report 2008-1, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University (2008): 1, https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf.

8. Kristensen and Korda, “Status of World Nuclear Forces”; Arms Control Association, “Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance”, Arms Control Association, June 2023, https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat.

9. Заслуживающий внимания обзор международных соглашений в отношении ядерного оружия: “U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreements at a Glance”, Arms Control Association, August 2019, https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USRussiaNuclearAgreements.

10. Max Roser and Mohamed Nagdy, “Nuclear Weapons”, Our World in Data, 2019, https:// ourworldindata.org/nuclear-weapons; Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Nuclear Notebook”, Federation of American Scientists, 2019, https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia; Kristensen and Korda, “Status of World Nuclear Forces”.

11. Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapon Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space, and Under Water, October 10, 1963, https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20480/volume-480-I-6964-English.pdf.

12. Полезная подборка международных законов, касающихся этой темы: “International Legal Agreements Relevant to Space Weapons”, Union of Concerned Scientists, February 11, 2004, https:// www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/space-weapons/international-legal-agreements.

13. Ученые осознали это несколько десятилетий назад. См., например, Martin E. Hellman, “Arms Race Can Only Lead to One End: If We Don’t Change Our Thinking, Someone Will Drop the Big One”, Houston Post, April 4, 1985, available in very similar form at https://ee.stanford.edu/~hellman/opinion/inevitability.html.

14. Кратко для получения четкого представления о том, как работает система взаимного гарантированного уничтожения, см. “Mutually Assured Destruction: When the Only Winning Move Is Not to Play”, Farnam Street, June 2017, https://fs.blog/2017/06/mutually-assured-destruction.

15. Подробнее о системах противоракетной обороны США: “Current U.S. Missile Defense Programs at a Glance”, Arms Control Association, August 2019, https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/usmissiledefense.

16. Alan Robock and Owen Brian Toon, “Self-Assured Destruction: The Climate Impacts of Nuclear War”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 68, no. 5 (September 1, 2012): 66–74, https://thebulletin.org/2012/09/self-assured-destruction-the-climate-impacts-of-nuclear-war.

17. Valerie Insinna, “Russia’s Nuclear Underwater Drone Is Real and in the Nuclear Posture Review”, DefenseNews, January 12, 2018, https://www.defensenews.com/space/2018/01/12/russias-nuclear-underwater-drone-is-real-and-in-the-nuclear-posture-review; Douglas Barrie and Henry Boyd, “Burevestnik: US Intelligence and Russia’s ‘Unique’ Cruise Missile”, International Institute for Strategic Studies, February 5, 2021, https://www.iiss.org/blogs /military-balance/2021/02/burevestnik-russia-cruise-missile.

18. Richard Stone, “‘National Pride Is at Stake.’ Russia, China, United States Race to Build Hypersonic Weapons”, Science, January 8, 2020, https://www.science.org/content/article/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons.

19. Joshua M. Pearce and David C. Denkenberger, “A National Pragmatic Safety Limit for Nuclear Weapon Quantities”, Safety 4, no. 2 (2018): 25, https://www.mdpi.com/2313-576X/4/2/25.

20. “Safety Assistance System Warns of Dirty Bombs”, Fraunhofer, September 1, 2017, https://www.fraunhofer.de/en/press/research-news/2017/september/safety-assistance-system-warns-of-dirty-bombs-.html.

21. Jaganath Sankaran, “A Different Use for Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Weapons Command and Control”, War on the Rocks, April 25, 2019, https://warontherocks.com/2019/04/a-different-use-for-artificial-intelligence-in-nuclear-weapons-command-and-control; Jill Hruby and M. Nina Miller, “Assessing and Managing the Benefits and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear-Weapon Systems”, Nuclear Threat Initiative, August 26, 2021, https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/assessing-and-managing-the-benefits-and-risks-of-artificial-intelligence-in-nuclear-weapon-systems.

22. Краткий рассказ о Черной смерти и других эпидемиях чумы: Jenny Howard, “Plague, Explained”, National Geographic, August 20, 2019, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/health-and-human-body/human-diseases/the-plague.

23. “Historical Estimates of World Population”, US Census Bureau, July 5, 2018, https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/international-programs/historical-est-worldpop.html.

24. Elizabeth Pennisi, “Black Death Left a Mark on Human Genome”, Science, February 3, 2014, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2014/02/black-death-left-mark-human-genome.

25. В генетической терапии, например, ради благих целей часто используются модифицированные вирусы. Краткий обзор этой области: “Gene Therapy Inside Out”, US Food and Drug Administration, YouTube video, December 19, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbJasFgJkLg.

26. Обзор опасностей, связанных с биотерроризмом: R. Daniel Bressler and Chris Bakerlee, “‘Designer Bugs’: How the Next Pandemic Might Come from a Lab”, Vox, December 6, 2018, https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2018/12/6/18127430/superbugs-biotech-pathogens-biorisk-pandemic.

27. Подробнее об асиломарской конференции и принятых положениях: M. J. Peterson, “Asilomar Conference on Laboratory Precautions When Conducting Recombinant DNA Research – Case Summary”, International Dimensions of Ethics Education in Science and Engineering Case Study Series, June 2010, https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1023&context=edethicsinscience.

28. Alan McHughen and Stuart Smyth, “US Regulatory System for Genetically Modified [Genetically Modified Organism (GMO), rDNA or Transgenic] Crop Cultivars”, Plant BiotechnologyJournal6, no. 1 (January 2008): 2–12, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467–7652.2007.00300.x.

29. Подробнее о работе Международной группы быстрого реагирования: Tasha Stehling-Ariza et al., “Establishment of CDC Global Rapid Response Team to Ensure Global Health Security”, Emerging Infectious Diseases 23, no. 13 (December 2017), https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article /23/13/17-0711_article; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Global Rapid Response Team Expands Scope to U.S. Response”, Updates