Революция разума: на подступах к Сингулярности. Как технологии изменят общество и сознание - Рэймонд Курцвейл

Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor, “30 Percent of Civilian Jobs Require Some Driving in 2016”, The Economics Daily, June 27, 2017, https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2017/30-percent-of-civilian-jobs-require-some-driving-in-2016.htm.

9. “Economics and Industry Data”, American Trucking Associations, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.trucking.org/economics-and-industry-data; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Occupational Outlook Handbook, Passenger Vehicle Drivers – Summary”, US Department of Labor, accessed January 30, 2023, https://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/passenger-vehicle-drivers.htm.

10. Mark Fahey, “Driverless Cars Will Kill the Most Jobs in Select US States”, CNBC, September 2, 2016, https://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/02/driverless-cars-will-kill-the-most-jobs-in-select-us-states.html.

11. Fahey, “Driverless Cars Will Kill the Most Jobs in Select US States”.

12. Cheeseman Day and Hait, “America Keeps on Truckin’”.

13. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Transportation Economic Trends, US Department of Transportation, accessed April 20, 2023, https://data.bts.gov/stories/s/caxh-t8jd.

14. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (Oxford Martin School, September 17, 2013), 2, 36–38, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf.

15. Frey and Osborne, “Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, 57–72.

16. Frey and Osborne, “Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, 57–72.

17. Frey and Osborne, “Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, 57–72.

18. Frey and Osborne, “Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, 57–72.

19. Ljubica Nedelkoska and Glenda Quintini, “Automation, Skills Use and Training”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers no. 202 (March 8, 2018), 7–8, https://doi.org/10.1787/2e2f4eea-en.

20. Nedelkoska and Quintini, “Automation, Skills Use and Training”, 7–8.

21. “A New Study Finds Nearly Half of Jobs Are Vulnerable to Automation”, Economist, April 24, 2018, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/04/24/a-study-finds-nearly-half-of-jobs-are-vulnerable-to-automation; Frey and Osborne, “Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”.

22. Alexandre Georgieff and Anna Milanez, “What Happened to Jobs at High Risk of Automation?”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers no. 255 (OECD Publishing, May 21, 2021), https://doi.org/10.1787/10bc97f4-en.

23. McKinsey & Company, “The Economic Potential of Generative AI: The Next Productivity Frontier ”, McKinsey & Company, June 2023: 37–41, https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier#introduction.

24. Richard Conniff, “What the Luddites Really Fought Against”, Smithsonian, March 2011, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/what-the-luddites-really-fought-against-264412.

25. “Hidden Histories: Luddites – A Short History of One of the First Labor Movements”, WRIR.org, May 23, 2010, https://www.wrir.org/2010/05/23/hidden-histories-luddites-a-short-history-of-one-of-the-first-labor-movemen; Conniff, “What the Luddites Really Fought Against”; Bill Kovarik, Revolutions in Communication: Media History from Gutenberg to the Digital Age (New York: Bloomsbury, 2015), 8, https://books.google.com/books?id= F6ugBQAAQBAJ; Jessica Brain, “The Luddites”, Historic UK, последняя проверка доступности 20 апреля 2023 года, https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/The-Luddites.

26. Conniff, “What the Luddites Really Fought Against”; Brain, “The Luddites”.

27. Brain, “The Luddites”; Kevin Binfield, ed., Writings of the Luddites (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2004); Frank Peel, The Risings of the Luddites (Heckmondwike, UK: T. W. Senior, 1880).

28. Stanley Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, in Output, Employment, and Productivity in the United States After 1800, ed. Dorothy S. Brady (Washington, DC: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1966), 119, https://www.nber.org/chapters/c1567.pdf; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 7, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Employment by Economic Activity: Agriculture: All Persons for the United States (LFEAAGTTUSQ647S)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 20, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFEAAGTTUSQ647S; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 7, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV.

29. Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 118; US Census Bureau, “Historical National Population Estimates July 1, 1900 to July 1, 1999”, Population Estimates Program, Population Division, US Census Bureau, revised June 28, 2000, https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/1900-1980/national/totals/popclockest.txt.

30. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Population (B230RC0A052NBEA)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated January 26, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B230RC0A052NBEA.

31. Michael Huberman and Chris Minns, “The Times They Are Not Changin’: Days and Hours of Work in Old and New Worlds, 1870–2000”, Explorations in Economic History 44, no. 4 (July 12, 2007): 548, https://personal.lse.ac.uk/minns/Huberman_Minns_EEH_2007.pdf; University of Groningen and University of California, Davis, “Average Annual Hours Worked by Persons Engaged for United States (AVHWPEUSA065NRUG)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated January 21, 2021, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG; Robert C. Feenstra, Robert Inklaar, and Marcel P. Timmer, “The Next Generation of the Penn World Table”, American Economic Review 105, no. 10 (2015): 3150–82, https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/docs/the_next_genera tion_of_the_penn_world_table.pdf.

32. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Personal Income Per Capita (A792RC0A052NBEA)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated March 30, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A792RC0A052NBEA; “CPI Inflation Calculator”, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed April 20, 2023, https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Real Median Personal Income in the United States (MEPAINUSA672N)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated September 13, 2022, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N.

33. Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 118; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Population (B230RC0A052NBEA)”.

34. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Personal Income Per Capita (A792RC0A052NBEA)”; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian Labor Force Level (CLF16OV)”; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Population (B230RC0A052NBEA)”.

35. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Real Median Personal Income in the United States (MEPAINUSA672N)”.

36. Huberman and Minns, “The Times They Are Not Changin’”, 548.

37. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Total Wages and Salaries, BLS (BA06RC1A027NBEA)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated October 12, 2022, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BA06RC1A027NBEA; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Hours Worked by Full-Time and Part-Time Employees (B4701C0A222NBEA)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated October 12, 2022, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B4701C0A222NBEA.

38. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Personal Income (PI)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated March 31, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PI.

39. См., например, Microeconomix, The App Economy in the United States (London: Deloitte, August 17, 2018), 4, https://actonline.org/wp-content/uploads/Deloitte-The-App-Economy-in-US.pdf.

40. Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960”, 119.

41. F. M. L. Thompson, “The Second Agricultural Revolution, 1815–1880”, Economic History Review 21, no. 1 (April 1968): 62–77, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2592204; Norman E. Borlaug, “Contributions of Conventional Plant Breeding to Food Production”, Science 219, no. 4585 (February 11, 1983): 689–93, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/219 /4585/689.full.pdf.

42. Подробнее о том, как индустриализация преобразовала сельское хозяйство: “Causes of the Industrial Revolution: The Agricultural Revolution”, ClickView, YouTube video, August 10, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QKIts2_yJ0; John Green, “Coal, Steam, and the Industrial Revolution: Crash Course World History #32”, CrashCourse,